The NOAA9 flights today will be sampling the upper atmosphere ahead of Irene; specific to address what many are talking about here...the eastward change in track is good news for FL but bad news for wherever its future track is likely to be now that the core will remain over water until what that eventual landfall is. The discussion released not too long ago does mention a decrease in forward speed. Between two ridges, a longwave trough or major shortwave trough and a strong hurricane to the south what sets up is referred to as a COL; an area of weak steering currents. I did look at the 22/12Z GFS loop and Irene will be with us for a good bit; however it is where Irene will enter the westerlies and that appears to be the Mid-Atlantic. That said, there will be shifts west and east as the strengths of the two ridges need to be ascertained as we go forward as to where the trough over the east coast will be as Irene approaches. The samplings will fill in the gap in the upper air charts and provide much better resolution both for the upper air analysis that include temperature, dew point depression, wind, changes in height in decameters. This too will provide input into all models. A FL landfall was for a weaker Irene; now a projected SC/NC landfall is of a major hurricane. It is way too early to project an exact landfall now that the entire coast is in play at this time. I will post later this evening a complete analysis following the 23/00Z package release. Irene is likely to be a major hurricane.