That data going into the 0Z runs are for the current midlevel-upperlevel flow.. but when that trough digs down and breaks the ridge on Tuesday night into Weds... the midlevel flow will change... so that Mission is just for short term 24hr movement.. it's not like the ridge will be there and no trough.

Only 10% chance of this making it to florida or less... and what would give it the 10% peeps may ask? Is
that Irene moves west in the near term... hits DR around 19.5N...weakens and stays West thru Tuesday night and exposes a LLC from the midlevel causing a more run up the Cuba coastline on Weds. Again.. 10% chance.. but it's the only chance for this to come to Florida. btw... that short term jog more W has been forecasted for days and days and it never happened.. so just cause it's jogged now.. doesnt mean much cause the models still show that happening.