weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 22 2011 01:46 PM
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico

Quote:

Agreed, looks like it is taking a jog to the west now. If that trend continues, it could have implications down the road.




I have to agree also on the appearant short term westward motion. Tricky thing is that none of the resolutions are comfortablly able to bear out where the center might seem to be. Perhaps reforming in some of the deeper convection? No doubt that Irene's inflow is ( or likely to be ) at least somewhat impacted by Hispanola's terrain to its south/southwest. Even though the Dominican Republic's north coast is not as "inhospitable" as the very mountaineous areas farther inland, convergence would seem to be impacted. Now, "if" Irene is truly trending westward in the short term and interacts with the island to a larger degree, well then Irene's general intensity, forward motion, etc. need be taken somewhat into consideration as it might apply to later 3-5 day forecast points.

My original thoughs days ago, were that Irene would pass to the north of HIspanola ( maybe scraping the NE coast at most ), however at the moment looks poised to possibly get tangled up there. Don't know whats worse, flooding rains and mudslides impacting many in D.R. as well as many impoverished in Haiti, or the prospects of a possible Cat. 4 making a slow motion landfall up in S. Carolina? Lets hope its neither...

Interesting note, though a very different looking ( and much weaker ) storm, didn't the center fix of Emily more or less make it ( and was well forecasted by NHC ) to just go east of Andros Island in the Bahamas as well? Looks a little like a pattern trying to set up for the season.



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