The euro has been the most accurate this year, and the GFDL has been less so, but it did ok for Emily, if you look at "Maps and Coordinates" on the left, you can see the model plots back to 2005 to compare.

Right now the GFDL is the outlier, but it is still within the NHC's cone. The Euro has been doing better this year so far, and for Irene it's more easterly toward Wilmington, SC. The short range forecasts out to 2 days are probably really where you want to see the trends at.

In truth each model has its strengths and weaknesses and depending on the overall setup some do better than others. The GFDL may be picking up something the others are missing, but that usually washes out (By being too far west), and you wind up with something like the NHC's forecast, which all said and done, looks pretty good.