Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Aug 23 2011 12:38 AM
Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene

Both dropsonde and flightlevel winds indicate the storm has weakened a little. Probably only about 85 to 90mph right now. Eyewall dropsonde showed 53kts at surface but may have missed the strongest wind. The eyewall is open southeast. Vortex recon report indicated the strongest winds at altitude were 83kt (95.55 MPH), which translates less at the surface. Given that it might have missed the strongest winds again, I'm giving an upper bound of 90mph surface.

However, pressure is down 3mb and IR shows the center reforming at the moment. My thought is this wind drop is transitory and she will be back to definite Category 2 shortly. Looks like there was some disruption of the southern feeders by the mountains of Hispanola which is being worked out of the system now. Once that is done, no reason for it not to strengthen again.

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