(Weather Master)
Tue Aug 23 2011 01:28 AM
Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene

I really don't see much of a change with the dropsonde package. Never really changes a models output..maybe just slightly in the near term cause its always changing. That's why there is a mission again on Tues,Weds,Thurs..etc etc... with a trough digging in eroding the ridge, it wont matter how much heat gets pulled up into the ridge. Intense hurricanes like 950mb or lower has like 2% worth or less impact on the ridge or trough that approaches.

GFS 00Z run has actually again shifted back east to its 12Z run.

Main near term factor is the Failed pattern of the ridge over the past 3 days. GFS has finally come inline with this ridge as of the 12Z run today and 0Z run by showing a more WNW movement (that it has had since Saturday). Others continued with a more W-WNW motion of 280dg except the HWRF but that model is usually on the right side of most runs.
Medium range will have the Cat3-4 Hurricane actually helping dig the trough on its western side pulling the Hurricane N and NE.. too early to say if there will be a landfall in the Carolinas.. SC-NC will get Tropical Storm conditions at least. Florida has a 5% chance of making a landfall or less even as I stated last Friday night.

Overall this is a typical run the coast between the US-Bermuda storm but is closer than normal due to it developing just east of the islands instead of east of 55W. Remember the GFS didnt have this develop until Sat night in the SE carribean around 14-15N and 62-64W.. but this developed further north around 17N and 58W. Also ridging was more NE causing a WNW movement instead of the movement just north of due west that most models showed for Sunday-Tuesday.

In all....we have a Cat 2 that should be a Cat 3 on Tuesday and Cat 4 possibly over the next day or 2. Pretty much a straight shot into the bahamas and moving just east of Nassau in 3 days or less. Also note after the first short wave passes.. there is no ridging behind this short wave... so the strength of the ridge to the east of Irene will pull whatever is west of it N until the next short wave comes by this weekend into next week. But this isnt a forecast cause that is more than 4 days from now.

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