Looking at Irene this AM you can see a slightly elongated shape (N to S) as the western side (and the SW) can't get its act together. The mountains are clearly limiting her potential, thus why the NHC is forecasting a Cat 3 once she is in open water. The models have finally gotten into alignment and agree Irene will stay off the coast of FL. The front pushing off the east coast of the US is pretty strong, I wonder if long term Irene will shift even further east and make landfall on the outer banks of NC or miss them entirely? Once she gains strength she'll be pulled north. Strange to see a storm this strong not have a defined eye yet, but once again the disruption to the SW is keeping the core from really wrapping up.

As for S FL I would expect minimal Tropical Storm force winds on Thursday, the hurricane force winds are still isolated very close to the system's core.