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S Florida will not get anything close to TS force winds unless somehow the system moves at least 100 miles further west. There might be some gusts near that in a squall or 2 that comes inland along the east coast of florida..but the core of the winds will remain offshore.
With the adjustment of the cone further east yet again I agree. However I am just wondering how big she'll expand to once in open water. If the weather (rain/wind) on the NE side ever wraps around to the SW this will be a large system. The NHC tends to over estimate the size (and strength) of the wind field so your most likely correct: the east coast of FL will not see sustained TS winds.
The winds in Pine Cay (T&C Islands) are gusting to 40mph from the N right now and the pressure is dropping. Should be interesting to keep tabs on this location today and into tonight. The center of Irene is still 100 miles away but should pass within 40 miles of this location around 8PM tonight.
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