MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 24 2011 03:24 PM |
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas
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Quote:
I asked the question yesterday about Irene heading WNW, well it is still heading basically WNW and yet the NHC has said it is moving NW. Is this a way to make themselves not look wrong with the forcast? I am just looking at all of the coodinates and over the last 4 Irene is still moving well more West than North. Am I missing something?
The last 4 coordinate points have been about 305 degrees (IE northwest), and the latest recon fixes have shown generally northwest.
The storm is going to wobble and stair-step, but the overall smooth motion is going to go slowly from northwest to more north over today and tomorrow. If anything the forecast track is not far east enough. Watching the satellite of Irene for movement constantly will test your nerves on a storm like this, right now it stair-stepped westward, a longer jog northward will probably happen. If after 6 hours a "jog" keeps going, you have something.
Odds are dropping for a NC landfall as well, now to about 25%. Still 1 in 4 chance is not something to play games with in a hurricane like this. It is going to be rough in the Carolinas, and it will likely be a good deal closer and stronger than Earl last year (that missed further to the east). If you are on the outer banks, I'd still make plans to leave Thursday or by the latest Friday. If hurricane watches/warnings are issued, take heed.
The reason we say "without the hype" is that we look at why things will not happen over why they will, because hurricane landfalls are a rare event. I honestly do not see anything that would make it go back more west right now and plenty of reasons that would nudge the track more eastward. If that changes I will immediately post that.
Really the official forecast is probably going to be correct (at least to 3 days)