tpratch
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 24 2011 11:27 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas

Quote:

I asked the question yesterday about Irene heading WNW, well it is still heading basically WNW and yet the NHC has said it is moving NW. Is this a way to make themselves not look wrong with the forcast? I am just looking at all of the coodinates and over the last 4 Irene is still moving well more West than North. Am I missing something?



The fixes have trends and the last one is definitely "toward the northwest" as was the phrasing in the 11am update. I'm not sure what you're seeing to suggest more west than north overall.

16 08/24 5:00 AM 21.6N 72.9W
(.3 north, .4 west)
16A 08/24 8:00 AM 21.9N 73.3W
(.5 north, .4 west)
17 08/24 11:00 AM 22.4N 73.9W

A 3 hour block of movement is sufficient to be a trend - a 6 hour, more so.

We have a NW trend over the past 6 hours - more than sufficient to call for a NW heading.


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