7PM EDT Update

Hurricane Irene has much better satellite presentation this evening than it did earlier today, and now has a "pinhole" eye. The official forecast track has moved slightly west and now makes landfall near Atlantic Beach, NC. Saturday Afternoon. After this it exits near Virginia Beach, skims Delaware, and then makes another landfall near Wildwood, NJ. Sunday Afternoon, then over New York CIty, NY and up through CT. MA, NH, and ME. The rough side of the storm is forecast to be in Boston.

The wind field of Irene is very large and strong Tropical Storm force winds will be felt on either side of the system quite a ways out, and hurricane force closer to the center. Large amount of storm surge along the coast as the size of Irene will move large amounts of water.

Those in areas affected need to prepare and listen to local media and official.

Hurricane Warnings up for:
Little River Inlet, SC (AT the SC/NC Border) to The NC/VA Border
Hurricane Watches north of there into Sandy Brook, NJ
Tropical Storm Warnings south to Edisto Beach
Tropical Storm Watches up for the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac

5PM EDT Update

Hurricane Warnings up for North Carolina. Hurricane Watches up to Sandy Hook, NJ. Tropical Storm Warning for most of South Carolina.

Those in the Watch and warnings areas need to prepare for dangerous conditions and possibly days without power in some areas. Please listen to local media and officials for information about your local area.

Original Update
Hurricane Watches are now up from Surf City, NC along the outer banks to the North Carolina/Virginia border. This means hurricane conditions are expected in the area by 48 hours.

Those in the outer banks should consider evacuating today if you haven't already, this system will be over or much closer to the coast and larger than Hurricane Earl that passed by to the east last year. Earl is expected to be a major hurricane at Landfall. Please heed all evacuation orders, Irene's models have been trending back into North Carolina rather than away since noon of yesterday. Listen to local media and officials in the watch/warning areas.

Conditions will likely slowly deteriorate tomorrow night into Saturday, with landfall probably midday Saturday in the Outer Banks.

Tropical Storm watches are up south of Surf City into Edisto Beach in South Carlina (Between Hilton Head and Charleston, SC).

For Florida, some extreme outer rainbands from Irene will begin approaching South Florida later this morning, and may spread north later in the day. This can be seen on south Florida Radar

Once Irene has passed the Outer Banks, Irene is expected to stay just offshore near the Delmarva peninsula and into western Long Island , NY, Sunday afternoon still as a hurricane. Guidance trends suggest this is fairly likely latest trends have it possible for the track to be slightly west of the current one as well, which would cause the core of Irene to move along the Delmarva, into New Jersey and ride the coast into New Hampshire and Maine, a large portion of New England north of New York and Rhode Island may be affected by a weaker (but still destructive) Irene.

Tropical Depression 10 has formed in the Far Eastern Atlantic, is expected to remain far out to sea without affecting any land areas. It is likely it will become a Tropical Storm.

Irene went through an eyewall replacement process last night that has temporarily weakened the storm wind wise, when the eye reemerges it is likely to be larger than previously seen and regain its strength to be a major hurricane as it crosses or clips the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The wind gradient is flatter right now,so the drop in windspeed is valid. The pressure is the lowest it has ever been in Irene, at 950mb, so when it recovers from the eyewall replacement cycle winds will likely pick up again drastically. After 2 days though vertical shear should halt any more strengthening of Irene.

What's happening weather wise or people wise regarding Irene in your area? Let us know here.

See the Forecast Lounge for more speculation on Irene.

Event Links

Flhurricane Disaster and preparatory information thread.

{{BahamasMedia}}

Landfall Area Media:
WECT 6TV - Wilmington, NC
WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)
WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)
WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)
Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV
WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA
WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

Papers:
Outer Banks Sentinel
Wilmington Star News Online
Hampton Roads Pilot

Power Outage Maps
Eastern Carolinas Power outage Map
Virginia Power outage Map
Maryland/DC Power Outage Map

Keep up with where Mark Sudduth (Hurricanetrack.com) is as he drives around the Outer Banks of North Carolina

{{CHC}}

Irene Storm Surge Probabilities

We are now recording the Rocky Bay webcam at Abaco Island in the Bahamas -- note these images are large.

Hope Town Fire rescue on Abaco Island, storm information

Updated Map of Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack.com, with video and radar for Irene approach See HurricaneTrack.com for more information.

RGB satellite recording of Irene.

Long Term Long Range US Radar of Irene

Map plot of Irene overlaid on Hurricane Floyd (1999) track

{{StormCarib}}

{{EastFloridaRadar}}

{{MidAtlanticRadar}}

{{StormLinks|Irene|09|9|2011|2|Irene}}

{{StormLinks|TD10|10|10|2011|1|TD#10}}

{{StormLinks|98L|98|11|2011|0|98L}}

Long term Central Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)

Long term West Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)