danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Aug 26 2011 08:28 AM
Irene Surge Forecasts

Mike has posted a link to the NHC Surge Forecasts above. I'll repost the link by itself here and comment on the Surge Forecasts.
Irene's Current NHC Storm Surge Probabilities
The Probabilities change every 3 to 6 hours. Please check them frequently

Please cycle through the different Surge Height Probabilities when using the NHC Product above.

Anyone on or near the Atlantic Coast from Florida to Maine should heed all Local and NHC Watches and Warnings.
Including Voluntary and MANDATORY EVACUATION notices.

At the present time using Advisory 24 there are several highly hazardous areas. They are as follows, from South to North.

Cape Fear and Onslow Bay,SC
Pamlico Sound, NC
Albemarle Sound,NC
Virginia Beach,VA
Cape Henry,VA
Norfolk,VA
Portsmouth,VA
Newport News,VA
Hampton,VA
Sandy Hook Bay,NJ
Raritan Bay, NJ
Lower Bay,NY

Any location in the vicinity of the above Cities and Bays. Basically any area on the Atlantic Coast from South Carolina northward that faces east or north. These areas allow the wind to pile up seas and surge and will experience Higher Water than other areas.
Especially Bays and Sounds. Including rivers and tributaries to the bays and Sounds.
Surge can, and will move upstream! Katrina's surge moved upstream nearly 18 miles.

Irene is currently forecast to move parallel to the Coast from North Carolina to Maine. This will enable the Sea Level Heights to reach depths as great as 8 feet in some areas.



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