Storm surge predictions are the most inaccurately predicted aspects of storms.
Some of my observations:
1. Irene is a fast-moving storm moving (initially) parallel to the coast.
2. These types of storms don't have enough time for a large storm surge as there is not a lot of time for the surge to build up.
3. Once the center is past the water is pulled out.
4. The above does not mean there will not be large wave action, though.
5. Storm surges are larger when a storm is slow-moving.

Storms moving directly into land act differently.
1. Surges are larger on the windy side of the eye - pushing water continuously in the same areas.
2. Obviously, slow moving storms allow the surge more time to build up.
3. Bays, inlets and rivers on the windy side can have much higher surges because the water is forced into a narrowing area.
4. Surges on the non-windy side of the storm do not exist.
5. Water is actually sucked out of bays, inlets and rivers.

I think for the above reasons, storm surge was dropped for the hurricane categories. It is also why SOES never worked. It is also why "little" storms frequently have much greater surges the the "big" ones.
Doug
None of this address tides as these are well understood but hard to predict until the storm's arrival is certain.