The wind field may be large, but only TS force winds. The hurricane force winds are in a small cluster to the NE of the center. I noticed yesterday that the front moving off the east coast was pretty sizable and thus might be able to nudge Irene a touch east. However the front is gone now leaving Irene to pulled due north into NC. Luckily the atmosphere in is full of dry air so she is going to be cut off from the moisture flow. The SW side of this storm has never looked good and that trend continues as it appears she has sucked some dry air which causes some weakness. The IR image shows some rebuilding is beginning, just a question of how much can occur before landfall. The next front coming down is a weak dip, not enough to kick Irene away, so I'd say the NHC forecast path is pretty good. I think the areas around DC will see the worst of it, with wind, rain and surge all pushing ashore in that area the most.

In regards to surge, the one thing I've always heard is: hide from wind, run from water. Rising water is no joke, I witnessed surge only once: during David in '79 and its a strange sight to see your boat in the backyard ABOVE your dock and seawall. That was a Cat 2 in West Palm and I lived around 7-10 miles inland on the New River in Ft Laud.