Curious on what seems to me conflicting information and would like some verification. I've heard that the front will not be strong enough to pick up Lee... that is what some of the models are suggesting. Yet, they feel the same trough will pick up Katia. Are these two different troughs? If it doesn't pull and catch soon to be Lee and Lee wanders in the Gulf, why would it assert so much pressure on Katia to make a sharp turn the same way Irene did.

As a weak storm Katia is going to keep going west and the models will pull more to the left. Her wind field possibilities are further west and south than they were earlier in the day.

We really need to get down intensity forecasting.

It's a tough call for the NHC, wouldn't want to be in their position or any NWS office along the Gulf as she is hard to predict as it goes right now.