Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 05 2011 11:02 AM
Re: TS Lee Pressure drop

Here is what confounds me about Katia. We have a Category 2 hurricane with 95kt winds that has gone through an ERC and has a giant well defined eye.

Normally ERCs don't occur until strong Cat 3 or better storms, with most ERCs happening in Cat 4 and Cat 5 storms. Further, large eyes generally do not occur in category 2 storms. And you generally need at least a category 3 storm before you get a well defined eye of any size.

How long will this storm stay at category 2 before the wind speeds and pressure catch up with it's significant structural changes?

From the 11am NHC discussion:
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES THAT DO NOT NORMALLY SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

This is actually a classic requirement for an annular storm. Annular storms tend to need lower SSTs than the traditional hurricane and also a light sheer environment, also present.