Hmmm...looks like the 18 GFDL moved quite a bit west...have to see if it's a trend.

I was at the soundside of OBX this weekend. My house had 16" of water in the basement. The rd outside ent from dry to chest- high water in about an hour at the end of Irene. Worst flooding there that anyone could remember. The oceanfront, in comparison, was completely untouched. Not so to the south on Hatteras Island, which will be without a road for about a month.

Re my gfdl comment...I just realized I was looking at the 95l model...which shows a different path for Katia than the Katia model itself.