weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 08 2011 11:38 AM
Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast

I must concur, that Maria is really looking "weathered" ( 'excuse the pun ). I can still see rotation close to where a small bit of new convection is trying to fire up, but it is hard to imagine that practically "naked swirl" will maintain itself much longer without some convection maintained close to the core. Frankly, with regards to potential downstream impact to the CONUS, I would much rather see Maria remain a more vertically stacked system and thus be more apt to start gaining latitude.

Of an interesting note, I found it interesting to see that the earlier runs of the Euro really "pegged" Maria's motion and speed, better than the GFS. Only reason I mention this, is that about a week ago, the longer ranges seemed to hint towards greater ridging in the W. Atlantic, and here we now have a weakened Maria still moving practically due Westward. Now for the first time, the 6Z GFS run not only has appeared to shift Maria more Westward, but also intensifies Maria again just north of Puerto Rico at about 72 Hr's. and then painstakingly "inches" WNW and brings Maria much closer to South Florida than in any recent runs. At the same time Nate might be a more serious threat to the N. Gulf Coast than originally thought. The GFS 500mb trough now appears oddly negatively tilted and over the middle of the country - quite a contrast to prior runs. Not sure if changes to the overall synoptic steering conditions are starting to exhibit themselves, but will be interesting to see today's 12Z runs of both the Euro and GFS and look for any consistancy.



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