Winds are northeast in Cancun and southwest at a buoy 130 miles off the coast. A ship in the Yucatan Channel reported 44mph sustained winds a little bit ago. The circulation isn't very tight yet, but there are T.S. force winds on the north side.

We may have a tropical storm sitting just off the coast right now, but the elongated tail to the southwest may make the NHC wait for some more organization to classify it.

Whether we will get a classified system remains to be seen. Any system that does form may not have ample opportunity to get very strong, but either way Florida will be in for a very heavy tropical rain event as a front dives down from the northwest and drags whatever is sitting in the Caribbean northeastward.

Also note, recon tomorrow is directed to 21.0N 86.0W which is over water and east of the Yucatan.