berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Oct 24 2011 12:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Rina in Western Caribbean

As of 23/1645Z - Rina is in a "sweet" spot. In the here and now Rina cannot advance north or she'll be sheared apart in quick fashion. Winds aloft to her north are from the WSW at 60 knots, near 70 closer to FL. Water vapor imagery has very, very dry air to her NW off the GOM coasts of TX, LA and in the short term steering currents are next to nil. Rina does look good on satellite but slow moving systems will generate upwelling...cooler water and thus rapid intensification is highly unlikely; there too is interaction with land...the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Upcoming upper air pattern for later in the week is not as amplified as the onset of the most recent cool snap over the eastern USA; however the cooler temperatures will be on par. SSTs over FL are much cooler than the 30C/86F Rina is over. Given that Rina will be down there for most of this week; there's no reliable model data that can tell us where Rina is going and in this particular lounge it would be unwise to suggest these possibilities until later in the week.


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