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NHC has bumped the wind speed up to 60 MPH after Chantal 'shot the CATL gap' and has moved into the Eastern Caribbean. TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT DISTINCT BUT EXCELLENT RADAR DATA FROM BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE SHOW THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CHANTAL MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ABOUT 25 KNOTS BETWEEN MARTINIQUE AN ST. LUCIA. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 TO 75 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS LEVELED OFF TO ABOUT 1006 MB. BASED ON MORE REPRESENTIVE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PLANE...AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHANTAL IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS IS FORECAST BEFORE CHANTAL CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE IN THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY SMALL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CYCLONE CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TREND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. CHANTAL IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. I AM SURPRISED THE SYSTEM EVEN HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING AT THAT SPEED.... edited~danielw Forecaster Avila |