Wrote a long post today about the pluses and minuses of Chantal's very existence and future. If you make a spreadsheet of pros and cons logically it should never have gotten this far nor should it still be there firing up this morning on the floater as if it is sending up red flares for the NHC to find it. Easily found..go figure.

Positives
1) Her tenancity of existing and making it across the ocean in Early July from an early CV wave which is usually one that "wets up the atmosphere for future waves" and nothing more. Upgraded in the Atlantic and still there in the Eastern Caribbean the "graveyard of storms" and not dying is her main positive point in her favor.

Negatives
1) Extremely fast forward speed. When was the last time a storm didn't go less than 25 MPH forward speed ever? And, last night it was trucking at 30 mph forward speed...which is more than many naysayers feel her winds were last night.

2) Shear...always there...that's why we call it the "graveyard of storms"

3) SAL and dry air she developed in and has been traveling with for days.

4) CLIMO

Any balance sheet would easily say she should not be there at all ....and yet she is..

Recon found enough data to keep her as a weak Tropical Storm with a cone that continues to call South Florida's name and yet...she is moving west still very rapidly. A very complicated storm to work with and model output isn't always helpful and the NHC is doing the best it can and that's pretty good in my opinion with this storm. LOCATION...16.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/145859.shtml?5day#contents

Worth noting the mets in NC have been saying we would see moisture from Chantal all morning..seems they buy into that general forecast cone.