Last night's NAM and low level models are in that camp. The problem with the NHC graphic is, it has to assume Chantal will have enough vertical depth and overall structure to be steered by the mid-level flow. As Lois mentioned; you don't see many systems this far south "racing" west...it takes a pretty strong low to mid level ridge to do that and for any of us who enjoyed being sandwiched between that big upper level trough and the ridge last week knows all to well that was quite an impressive plume of moisture shot up to Canada. I think the models have done a fantastic job and we all have to remember what the parameters of each of these models are; one cannot expect the GFS and ECMWF to handle shallow systems well; that's not what their designed to do. One of the things I have noted over the past few hurricane seasons is this persistent shear aloft and I'm not just referring to the Central Atlantic Tropospheric Trough but just enough of a Eastern US trough that separates the mid-continental upper hot ridge from its wet cousin the upper Bermuda ridge. It doesn't look like much in the low to mid levels but up in the 300 to 200 millibars...that trough is quite pronounced and if Chantal was a deeper system then NC might have something to worry about. I've seen that shear pretty consistent due to this trough that sets up over the Eastern US aloft and given where all the upper level players are right now; there is a band of 30 to 50 knots of shear aloft right over Chantal's current path...if she remains on this persistent 280 vector; it's over. It's hard to fly against persistence given how shallow she is. What I fear is a center reformation further north.