berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Jul 12 2013 02:35 AM
Re: Remnants of Chantal

Unless there are two distinct circulations; Chantal will continue. While I don't like where the track suddenly moved NW to a position N of Cuba; you can't dismiss the south track which in time has a better opportunity of regeneration when the upper level trough weakens and the huge hot ridge establishes itself as it has over much of the nation. Satellite imagery depicts a full latitude trough from the Gulf of Mexico extending ENE and NE at 200 and 300 millibars and satellite loops depicts that rotation quite nicely. This is the best amount of convection I've seen in the past 48 hours. I'm not prepared to say a north route is an early demise but a more southern center has a better outcome given its relationship to a departing trough in a couple of days. One more thing while we tend to look at the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles; hat's off to that relic we call the NAM; 48 hours it put the southern extent of the remnants right were it is now.


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