I just updated the Facebook page...yesterday the GFS was the outlier; today it's 50-50 and the ECMWF has shifted further north. Keep an eye on the upper level trough situated over the eastern US and look for it to retrograde westward; Currently there is an upper low in the South Central Gulf of Mexico squarely centered between the upper ridge over South Central US and another upper ridge over Central Cuba...at 300 millibars there is a clear trough axis in the extreme southern GOM and excellent upper air difluence between it and the upper ridge over Cuba that has enhanced convective elements of 92L. I didn't post that low in my discussion but the GFS has had a good handle on it now for a few days; it can't be dismissed and the CIMMS Tropical website is down so I don't have access to the shear analysis but I'm not convinced that down the road this will be a pure tropical cyclone given the upper air environment.