Don't forget also that recon is flying AL92 tomorrow, and that data will be ingested into the models (maybe starting with the 16/00Z runs?), so that'll make a big difference.

Looking at the forecast, take a gander at the 15/00Z 500 mb analysis from SPC: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_130815_00.gif

There is a series of shortwave troughs over the northern CONUS: one over eastern Nebraska and the other over eastern Montana. These shortwave troughs will act to amplify the longwave trough over the east coast and allow the ridge over the western CONUS to build, which will result in a col (a saddle point in the wind/pressure field) being set up over the Gulf of Mexico. These tend to result in two things: (1) weak steering currents, and (2) low model predictability. Since the aforementioned longwave trough amplification will result in large-scale height falls over the eastern half of the US with height rises over the western/central US, my thinking is that the northern models will win the day in the end, meaning people from Corpus Christi to Pensacola are probably the most under the gun. This general idea is what the GFS and ECMWF have been suggesting for the past few runs.