It has been a slower season than many, including the formal prediction agencies, thought it would be, so far... Things can blossom quickly. The season doesn't end until Dec 1. There is plenty of time for a flurry of activity to transpire.

Although the various models do take would-be Gabrielle polarward in a hurry, there are contingencies to that plan that need be considered.

For one, there is a powerful disturbance that may very well be on a developmental curve of its own, not more than a few hundred miles NE of the TD 7. This feature, if it does develop, will likely impact the track of Gabrielle, and do so in unknown ways -- we certainly cannot entrust too much credence to the guidance(s) beyond just 3 days from now given any potential interaction between these features.