| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 08 2017 03:46 PM |
|
Re: Franklin in the W Caribbean and 99L Problems
|
Wish there could have been some more fly-ins after 22:30 yesterday. A combination of Franklin improving internally during the hours before landfall (with each progressive recon penetration finding lower pressures and stronger winds, despite the markedly warming cloud tops and subsequent lowering of CI numbers that would otherwise suggest), increased overnight humidity, and friction, may have led Franklin to briefly attain near-hurricane or even hurricane status around completion of landfall. Something for those who do reanalysis to have tons of fun with ;-)
You will seldom read a more unbalanced-looking paragraph from the NHC (but then Franklin has also been quite the enigma)
Quote:
Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017
The Belize Doppler weather radar indicates that Franklin's inner-core circulation has tightened up considerably since the previous advisory, likely due to frictional convergence, and that a 10-15-nmi-diameter closed eye has developed. Radar reflectivity values have been steadily increasing in the eyewall, and this development trend is supported by infrared satellite imagery, which shows deep convection with cloud tops of -75C to -80C now completely covering the radar eye. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory based on a typical decay rate for landfalling tropical cyclones.