3AM EDT 25 Aug 2018
In what is one of the weirder, and in this situation, unfortunate, tropical weather events that come to memory, Lane is decoupled, with the LLC well west of the islands, seemingly spinning down on its own, but with the mid-level center merging overnight with the remnants of what we were tracking as Invest 95c, and based on recent satellite and radar trends, it almost looks as if they are attempting to reform a new TD just to the east of the Big Island (not expected, rather unlikely, but possible, and just plain Frankensteiny).
Nearby, there is also a large but dry tropical wave with an associated area of weak low pressure approaching the southernmost part of the archipelago from the southeast.
There is no telling what the potential interactions of these three separate, but now interacting systems will do exactly, but it does look likely that this odd event is going to enhance rainfall over portions of the islands already experiencing devastating totals, and as this merger is occurring over and just to the east of the chain, may unfortunately drag out these rains for longer than what would have happened otherwise.
10:45PM EDT 24 Aug 2018
Lane has fallen apart, a victim of shear and the unique topography of Hawaii, rainfall remains, but Lane is now a Tropical Storm.
5:30PM HST Update 21 Aug 2018
Recon is heading back in and may soon confirm that Lane is now an even more powerful hurricane, with winds into Cat 5 territories. Lane is already a historically powerful hurricane in this region, and has steering currents ahead expected to send the most dangerous portion of a hurricane, the Right Front Quadrant, into the entire archipelago. This is an unprecedented forecast, that if verified, may become an epic tragedy. Efforts to protect life and property need to be rushed to completion.
10PM HST Update 20 Aug 2018
Recon has found that Lane is once again strengthening, with central pressure at last fix in the lower 950s, and maximum sustained winds possibly around 150 MPH (both pending verification). With forecast steering currents indicating a right hook into the Hawaiian archipelago by Thursday, preparations to protect life and property should now be underway.
Hurricane Lane is a Major in the central Pacific. It now appears likely that the western extent of the central Pacific ridge will be eroding near the Hawaiian Islands as Lane will be approaching and/or tracking closest to the chain. In response, models and indeed the official forecast out of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center suggests that issuance of a Hurricane Watch for islands within the chain may be coming soon.
Hurricanes are rarely a distinct threat to Hawaii, except, primarily, should they approach from the south. This is the trend seen more and more by most models, except, notably, the Euro. Given that the Euro is the lone hold-out, however good a model it is, makes apathy an unsafe bet. Now is the time to begin hurricane prep, including preparing for potential life-threatening floods, rock and mudslides.
Recon has been flying Lane, and based on solid sampling, the intensity was raised to 110 knots late last night local time. More flight data forthcoming.
For in-depth model discussion, join us in the Hurricane Lane Lounge
Flhurricane Lane Webcam and Radar Recordings
Lane Satellite images/floaters
Lane Microwave imagery