Mon Aug 20 2018 07:33 AM
Lane Downgraded to Tropical Storm

3AM EDT 25 Aug 2018
In what is one of the weirder, and in this situation, unfortunate, tropical weather events that come to memory, Lane is decoupled, with the LLC well west of the islands, seemingly spinning down on its own, but with the mid-level center merging overnight with the remnants of what we were tracking as Invest 95c, and based on recent satellite and radar trends, it almost looks as if they are attempting to reform a new TD just to the east of the Big Island (not expected, rather unlikely, but possible, and just plain Frankensteiny).

Nearby, there is also a large but dry tropical wave with an associated area of weak low pressure approaching the southernmost part of the archipelago from the southeast.

There is no telling what the potential interactions of these three separate, but now interacting systems will do exactly, but it does look likely that this odd event is going to enhance rainfall over portions of the islands already experiencing devastating totals, and as this merger is occurring over and just to the east of the chain, may unfortunately drag out these rains for longer than what would have happened otherwise.

10:45PM EDT 24 Aug 2018
Lane has fallen apart, a victim of shear and the unique topography of Hawaii, rainfall remains, but Lane is now a Tropical Storm.

5:30PM HST Update 21 Aug 2018
Recon is heading back in and may soon confirm that Lane is now an even more powerful hurricane, with winds into Cat 5 territories. Lane is already a historically powerful hurricane in this region, and has steering currents ahead expected to send the most dangerous portion of a hurricane, the Right Front Quadrant, into the entire archipelago. This is an unprecedented forecast, that if verified, may become an epic tragedy. Efforts to protect life and property need to be rushed to completion.


Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018


Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible late Thursday night into Friday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Wednesday into the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island, spreading across the remainder of the island chain on Wednesday. These swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.

10PM HST Update 20 Aug 2018
Recon has found that Lane is once again strengthening, with central pressure at last fix in the lower 950s, and maximum sustained winds possibly around 150 MPH (both pending verification). With forecast steering currents indicating a right hook into the Hawaiian archipelago by Thursday, preparations to protect life and property should now be underway.

Original Entry

Hurricane Lane is a Major in the central Pacific. It now appears likely that the western extent of the central Pacific ridge will be eroding near the Hawaiian Islands as Lane will be approaching and/or tracking closest to the chain. In response, models and indeed the official forecast out of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center suggests that issuance of a Hurricane Watch for islands within the chain may be coming soon.

Hurricanes are rarely a distinct threat to Hawaii, except, primarily, should they approach from the south. This is the trend seen more and more by most models, except, notably, the Euro. Given that the Euro is the lone hold-out, however good a model it is, makes apathy an unsafe bet. Now is the time to begin hurricane prep, including preparing for potential life-threatening floods, rock and mudslides.

Recon has been flying Lane, and based on solid sampling, the intensity was raised to 110 knots late last night local time. More flight data forthcoming.


Hurricane Warning

Offshore Waters Forecast for Hawaii
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1154 PM HST Sun Aug 19 2018

Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 nautical miles including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.


.REST OF TONIGHT...E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.MONDAY...E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MONDAY NIGHT...E winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY through FRIDAY...Hurricane conditions expected over S and
SW waters. Elsewhere, E winds 20 to 30 kt, Seas 8 to 14 ft. Chance of thunderstorms.

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Flhurricane Lane Webcam and Radar Recordings

Lane Satellite images/floaters

Lane Microwave imagery


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