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Third pass through has found pressure leveling out at around 1005, but winds increasing - now a more conclusive argument for 50KT and possibly 55KT at 11. The shear, dry air, and rapid movement others have noted appear to be the only thing keeping Gordon from ramping up fast, but so far, they do not appear to be weakening the tropical cyclone. Caveat being Gordon's small inner core is certainly putting at risk along the track should at any time conditions become less hospitable, for a significant drop in intensity. CIMSS analyzes shear of 25 knots just to the circulation's north, but so far, this is nowhere near the core. More importantly, that shear will probably ease up should, as expected, deeper convection blow up over a wider area, bolstering the upper-level high aloft (and thus fending off that shear, or even weakening the shearing ULL altogether). |