| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 07 2018 03:23 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Michael forms in Western Caribbean
|
I think given that center jumps into the deeper convection being displaced to the east by shear may continue until net effective shear should start to really relax, safe to say that those in the Lower Keys and also Florida's west coast may want to begin paying much closer attention. These locations are going to be on the dirty side of the storm, regardless.
First Vortex Message:
Quote:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 18:52Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Tropical Depression: Fourteen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 18:14:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18.89N 86.24W
B. Center Fix Location: 137 statute miles (221 km) to the E (79°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 714m (2,343ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 40kts (46.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the N (3°) of center fix at 17:52:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 87° at 42kts (From the E at 48.3mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 70 nautical miles (81 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix at 17:48:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 39kts (44.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 81 nautical miles (93 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix at 18:39:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 225° at 48kts (From the SW at 55.2mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 105 nautical miles (121 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix at 18:47:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 766m (2,513ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 757m (2,484ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 7 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) which was observed 105 nautical miles (121 statute miles) to the SE (133°) from the flight level center at 18:47:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb