| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 09 2018 10:12 AM |
|
Re: Michael's Watches and Warnings Now Extend 100s of Miles
|
Michael continuing to intensify with two planes penetrating the eye this morning and a third sampling the environment helping to pin things down into the final stretch before landfall.
Apparent jumpiness is a result of Michael's asymmetric eye and inner mesovortices, but the smoothed out motion of the mean center is still on target.
Most recent fix finding 967 MB and 120 MPH flight-level winds
Quote:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 13:52Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2018
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 13:32:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.78N 86.20W
B. Center Fix Location: 278 statute miles (447 km) to the W (273°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,805m (9,203ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 13kts (From the SSW at 15mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 91kts (104.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fix at 13:27:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 113° at 104kts (From the ESE at 119.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix at 13:26:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 63kts (72.5mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 13:37:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 319° at 77kts (From the NW at 88.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 13:36:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,032m (9,948ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (38°) from the flight level center at 13:26:30Z