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10:00 AM CDT 13 July 2019 Update Hurricane Barry forms in the Gulf just as it makes landfall in the Central Louisiana coastline. Despite being very lopsided to the south and southeast, Buoy, Aircraft, Rig reports have found Barry has reached hurricane strength. Rainfall once the southern portion arrives will be the largest threat, those north and west of the center will likely hardly notice anything. However the southern section does extend fairly far west, so Tropical storm warnings have been extended westward to Sabine Pass. 6:30 PM CDT 12 July 2019 Update Barry's structure has improved throughout the day Friday, with progressively stronger surface winds the closer one is to the very center. In addition, upper-level outflow has improved in all quadrants, and most importantly so, in the northern half of the cyclone. Barry is now a fully tropical Tropical Cyclone and by all accounts, likely maturing into a hurricane before landfall. While not expected, Barry, likely to be a full-fledged and not fledgling, dangerous TC before landfall, could strengthen even more than forecast with so much of it over anomalously warm Gulf waters. With high-end tropical storm to full hurricane-force gusts likely to push inland, given all the rain on the way, trees will fall. Easily. Wind-related injuries and fatalities are often from falling trees and branches. The greatest threat by far is coming in the way of life-threatening, flooding rain that could continue for an extended duration. Anyone who has remained in areas prone to flooding should be rushing to completion efforts to protect life and property, if not evacuating if so advised by local authorities. Flooding in this event may exceed all previous records in several places. Quote: -Ciel 10:30 AM CDT 12 July 2019 Update Barry is doing a run on strengthening today, but it still a fairly sloppy system, although the primary center is not expected to make landfall until tomorrow morning, a strong are of convection currently on south side of the center likely will rotate around and up over the Louisiana coastline and near New Orleans, likely late afternoon or evening. This will bring heavy rain and surge into the areas. Lake Pontchartrain is now under a storm Surge Warning. 10 AM CDT 11 July 2019 Update Tropical Storm Barry has formed 6 AM CDT 11 July 2019 Update Recon failed to find enough orgnaiztion to upgrade the system overnight, but it still remains close to becoming a tropical depression or storm this morning. The track was adjusted slightly in central Louisiana bringing more eastern side rains potentially to New Orleans. The recon flying right now is finding lower pressures (1003 mb) and a bit more organizatio9n which implies an upgrade may happen sooner than later. This system is mostly going to be a rain maker, although a hurricane at landfall is still forecast by late tomorrow or Saturday morning. Because the system has not properly formed there is still a great deal o9f uncertainty in he official forecast Those in the watch area should pay attention to local media and officials for informatio9n specific to their area. 8:30PM CDT July 10, 2019 Update PTC TWO looks to have completed Tropical Cyclogenesis, or is right on the cusp of doing so, and may easily be a named, and fully tropical, storm, Thursday. This is a particularly dangerous situation, with the risk of extreme inland flooding high. Barry may even cause overtopping Saturday of the Mississippi river levee in the Lower 9th Ward, Algiers and St. Bernard Parish. Even though 92L/proto-Barry is "not (yet) named," preparations along its path to protect life and property should now be underway. Time is limited, and at some point evacuation routes, hotels, shelters, stores and such may be completely inaccessible. Further discussion and speculation for potential impacts and future track of proto-Barry can be found in the TWO/Barry Forecast Lounge. -Ciel Original Post Potential Tropical Storm 2 Advisory issued, Hurricane forecast for Louisiana Saturday midday. The idea of potential advisories is to allow for official watches and warnings even before a storm has properly formed if it will impact land areas. Flooding rainfall has already occurred in New Orleans and more is on the way to potentially the worst flooding there since 1927. More to come soon. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City, Louisiana. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City...3 to 5 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 18 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday or early Friday. {{StormLinks|Barry|02|2|2019|02|Barry}} MesoScale Satellite of Barry Louisiana Power Outage Map {{LAInfo}} {{NortheastGulfRadar}} {{NorthGulfRadar}} {{TexasGulfRadar}} {{StormLinks|94L|94|3|2019|93|Invest 94L}} |
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Recon in en route now (Short trip) |
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Recon has been finding tropical storm force winds well removed from the mean center, within the southernmost band. Proto-Barry is probably now a 40/45 mph storm, but still looks to be lacking qualification for TC classification - namely a tighter and more coherent center. This will likely change today, and we will probably see advisories on "Barry" soon. |
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ATFC and recon should be enough to upgrade it to a TD or TS at 11 (Any minute now). |
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First Vortex message Quote: |
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Mike, I live in one of the three counties on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Several of the models have Barry curving back east to take it straight up Mississippi or between LA & MS. One model impacts Alabama. Thoughts, please. |
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Recon still finding a wind structure that more closely resembles that of a hybrid storm, than one classically tropical. In the screenshot below (original credit Tropical Tidbits) I've drawn circles around what are roughly "belts" of wind intensities. The current order of things, with the belts of progressively stronger winds further removed from the calm center, is the opposite of what one expects to see in a classic TC, and as such, there may be some continued abnormally large fits and starts until this reverse order flips (with the strongest winds encircling the calm center, and not at the extremities). As an aside, the two center fixes in the image above may give the incorrect impression of a northwesterly motion. In fact the second fix in this image was the one to the southeast. In reality, the fixed center is likely just hopping around, wobbling, or perhaps rotating a bit cyclonically within what is still a relatively broad center. And in general, it's usually not a good idea to extrapolate too much from just a few fixes in any system, let alone a messy, new one, anyway. Recon is currently passing through Barry's center for a third time, and as of 12:45PM CDT seems to be about to fly into the prominent northernmost lobe/swirl, which has since rotated about the mean center and looks to be getting subsumed. These small-scale features can somtimes have outsized influence over future tracks and intensities. |
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Rare Day 3 HIGH RISK has been issued by WPC. Significant, life-threatening flooding is likely, and extreme, record-setting flooding is possible. The only other Day-3 High Risks WPC has issued were for Harvey (2017) and Florence (2018). Quote: Related Flhurricane links: Unnamed Louisiana Low of 2016 Florence Lounge (2008) |
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Strange storm from the first mention of it. The only time this amateur could be sure I knew the center of rotation it was still over land. Looking at satellite and radar, it's an enigma to me. It never looks like it is moving west. But that is just me, I trust the FLhurricane team and that's why I am here. We have had a good and welcome breeze here in Gulfport, Florida for a couple days. Our local news says it is from Barry. It had been stagnant for days and it rained everyday. Today was dryer here, but there was still a lot of rain around. The Gulf of Mexico seems to be sweating profusely. That's scary from what cieldumort says for LA and our neighbors to the northwest. Just hoping Barry stays wide and weak. We'll not complain about rain here, and the cooler temperatures and breeze are making a nice early to mid July so far in Florida for we locals. Tourist might be complaining a bit though. |
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Looks like it might be blowing up this morning! |
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Am I seeing circulation coming from the center of that big area of convection just south of the other area of circulation?? |
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Been a while since we have seen any posts from the resident METS and experts. Would be great to know what everyone is thinking with the latest models and the 11AM Discussion and Advisories. :-) |
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Storm Surge and rain. Several visual recordings here https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php Trying to analyze the situation to see what's up. Not looking good for NOLA. |
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Recon just found a Pressure of 994, 4 below the advisory. Barry is doing a run on strengthening today, but it still a fairly sloppy system, although the primary center is not expected to make landfall until tomorrow morning, a strong are of convection currently on south side of the center likely will rotate around and up over the Louisiana coastline and near New Orleans, likely late afternoon or evening. This will bring heavy rain and surge into the areas. Lake Pontchartrain is now under a storm Surge Warning. |
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Recon recently ran into an 83mph gust at flight level. |
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All the NOLA floodgates are shut, I think that's the first time that's happened. Anyway the center is exposed, but the convection is rapidly approaching it, it'll probably have one more strengthening period before landfall. |
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Horrible situation. I assume there is another discussion somewhere with more activity, I just have not looked. This storm has me so discombobulated it is ridiculous. All day being obsessed with every storm, I have been watching satellite images and just staring at the animations confused. I'd think there would be a LOT of talk here, but we are in Florida so maybe not our discussion. So question to anyone who has time to answer: What in the world is this spinning thing that came out of the convection and swirled back around? For a while I thought maybe "this" was the center of circulation, as the center has been so vague to me. But it circled around another circulation. I've never ever seen anything like this in any of the countless storms I have watched. Does this phenomena have a name? Is it described anywhere? This is a 9MB GIF, so might take a moment to load up: All day I have been fascinated by the "convection" that has stayed in place. To me it appears its own system being fed by Barry and sure looks like there is some rotation in there. I suspect I am very wrong, the only mention anyone anywhere says about it is that there is a "large area of convection" south of the center. I know it is over the Gulf's hotplate of water, so maybe why it stays in place, but it just looks like its own storm to me. Yea, I know, doesn't make sense. But nobody else is talking about it. Can a storm be born on the edge of another storm? Has it ever happened? |
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Here's an animation of the convection I've been watching all day. At first, to me, it looked like a standalone storm with some circulation of its own. You'll see what I mean. Then the last frames it looks like a fire hose of gasoline being sprayed into a fire... 18MB, so a pretty big file: Good thing this is staying offshore, at least for now. |
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From another forum an hour ago: Quote: One reply of note: Quote: Interesting... |
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Quote: That is one of Barry's many mesovortexes, and probably the most prominent one thus far. Agree that it could become the dominant LLC now that it is tucking under the deepest convection and has a chance to lock up with the mid-level center. Otherwise, it will have been the most impressive mesovort spinning cyclonically about the center thus far. Should this mesovort link up with that deep convection and the mid-level center (which has been south of the surface center), it could lead to a period of more rapid intensification and possibly tug the TC more to the southwest or even south, for a bit, before the west to northwest to north forecast track resumes. |
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There is lightning starting to happen along the southern side of the center, which could be a sign its trying to push for strength at the moment. It is a very lop-sided storm, but what's there is pretty strong. |
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Center no longer discernible on visible satellite. Wondering if it’s trying to get underneath convection blowing up to south of where center previously appeared. |
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Possibly, although it's harder to determine at night. The other sign is the shoot up of convection starting on the northeastern flank. It's going for another intensification run tonight. |
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Maybe an eye starting? 13 Jul 19 01:36:33 UTZ |
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I'm not so sure that's it, since there's a lot of competition there, but that's where I'll be looking for a while anyway. |
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Quote: Possible, but I think not likely. More possibly a sucker hole. The last vortex message to be sent out was at a location well north of there. This has more the look of a localized region of subsidence in between some hot towers. If it turns out to be the mid-level center developing an eye-like feature, it could have significant implications for the forecast, given how far south it is from the tracked center. |
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It's a hurricane now: ACTF Hurricane Barry |