Fri Aug 30 2019 07:04 PM
Re: Dorian In the Atlantic Likely Florida Bound

Track guidance is divergent toward the ended of the short range, when unfortunately Dorian's approach to the eastern coast of Florida will be occurring...

In the larger synoptic scope, questions have arisen ( considering the trends of Global numerical model clusters ) as to how changes in the westerlies over North America will impose and influence Dorian's track. Details of Dorian's destiny will be determined by timing those subtle and/or not so subtle influences.

At least through 48 hours ... not much will change, however. In that window, Dorian is reasonably clustered along a west-northwest motion that should take it through the northern Bahama archipelago. Beyond that, divergence increases considerably. Some suggestion of slowing the system and even turning it north along the coast, having failed to actually bring it inland are in the mix of plausible solutions. While there are just as viable solutions that are in conflict bringing Dorian onshore. Either way, the consensus is perilously close to the eastern coast of Florida, between Miami and Cape Canaveral about 72 hours from now, after which does continue inland between those ~ reference points ( caveat subject to change applies...).

Intensity, as usual, comes with its own headaches. Possibilities still exist for more and less, but more appears likely at this time. This may not be the best news for particularly vulnerable sea/tide exposed civility infrastructures along the SE coast of the state. In either case, Floridians and in fact, even up the coast toward GA/Carolinas ... all need to be paying very close attention to the status of Dorian. I can tell you it is a bit disconcerting that some of these guidance are having trouble capping the upper bound of intensity. There are always a handful of guidance that'll do that, but Dorian will be in a lowered(ing) shear with superb oceanic heat content during the next two days.

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