Mike, in your effort to remain conservative and avoid hype, I wonder if you are not going to far.
A Cat 4 storm 40 or 50 miles off the coast would produce a storm surge that would do enormous damage. St. Augustine has been flooded in the last two storms and may be again. Real estate values there will likely tank if that happens as it will become virtually impossible to insure properties that have been flooded three times. Other coastal locations may suffer the same. We have all seen a number of storms threaten the east coast and then, at the last minute, veer off shore. I prey that that is what will happen this time as well, but a nearby Cat 3 could be worse than an on-shore Cat 1. Do you see my point?