Wed Oct 16 2019 06:55 PM
Tropical Storm Nestor in NE Gulf

2:00PM EDT Update 18 October 2019
SIXTEEN has become Tropical Storm Nestor. Nestor is a hybridish tropical storm, but tropical enough to qualify. More importantly, the impacts from this cyclone are going to be much more in line with that of a strong tropical storm - and perhaps yet still a hurricane - than garden variety subtropical storms, although very lopsided, with most of the worst weather on the eastern side, for now.

10:00 AM EDT Update 17 October 2019
96L is expected to become a named storm later today or tonight, and NHC advisories have been issued for what is now PTC SIXTEEN.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to Clearwater, Florida.


Original Update

Conditions for subtropical and tropical cyclone development closer to home are on the rise climatologically in mid to late October, and right on cue we have a concerning trof in the southwestern Gulf, having split off from the same parent Central American feature that went on to also spin out PTC SEVENTEEN in the eastern Pacific yesterday.

Now over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche, 96L is showing signs of pulling things together at a somewhat faster clip, and as of this post, NHC gives it a coin toss of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone within just the next 48 hours.

Nestor Forecast Lounge: Nestor

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