IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Tue Nov 03 2020 02:11 PM
Re: November Hurricanes

From NWS Melbourne this morning's discussion:

Regarding the Tropics, the 00Z GFS and ECMWF models bring some
remnants of Hurricane Eta north of Honduras, back over the far
northwestern Caribbean late this week. It is not clear if this
would be the old sfc circulation from "Eta" or some of its
mid/upper remnants. Regardless, reliable model guidance shows a
mid level low developing over the central Gulf coast which would
push this system toward the E/NE over the NW caribbean with some
(re)strengthening. Both GFS and ECMWF show an abrupt turn to the
west near or over Cuba this weekend as strong upper high over the
mid Atlc coast of the US blocks its northward progress. While
highly uncertain, it should be noted that such a tight easterly
pressure gradient between a strong high to our north and low
pressure near or over Cuba would produce very windy conditions
along the FL east coast with potential for bands of heavy rain
pushing onshore and significant beach erosion.

as mentioned above in the last sentence, looks like Florida's east coast
may be in for a significant coastal erosion event. Check out GFS next Sunday:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020110312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_20.png



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