Latest NOAA recon stated that the 700mb center was not well defined and somewhat displaced from the surface circulation indicating that the rapid westward movement of the surface low may be outrunning the mid-level low. Once the LL circulation slows, it may become better stacked. However, shear is expected to increase as well. NHC also states that the intensity forecast has lower confidence in the longterm period as well as low confidence in track guidance in days 4 - 5. Elsa is going to require close scrutiny in the coming days. Stay alert, my friends.
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Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings