Worth noting that the current recon mission into Nicholas is finding the sloppy center trending left and yet more left still of NHC forecast positions, now with almost all the deep convection well to his north and northeast.

A center reformation downshear into the deeper convection remains very possible, but not certain. A continued track of the surface low to the left and away from the convection right at the time models suggested shear would be starting to relax does not build a lot of confidence in the current forecast. Bears watching. Mexico may be more in play after all for a weaker but still wet system.