Sun Sep 12 2021 11:32 PM
Re: More September Activity

Recon has just found that Nicholas is likely in the process of or has just completed a rather dramatic center reformation into the deeper convection well to the north of the old LLC that itself is now rapidly weakening and tracking west towards Mexico.

The image below captures the recon mission winds, vorts, IR satellite, and NHC forecast track as of 7PM. This likely center reformation puts Nicholas much closer to the forecast location for 7AM Monday morning, and also suggests that the formative cyclone may continue to be a jumpy one in response to the southwesterly shear - with inclement weather moving onshore of Texas and Louisiana sooner rather than later.

This could also increase the odds of further rightward adjustments in the official NHC forecast track, and they have alluded to this with the 10PM Advisory.

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