cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 25 2022 02:22 AM
Re: Dangerous September Underway

Lots in play with track and intensity. Odds still favor Ian becoming a Major. Track is unusually highly uncertain at this time, however.

NHC estimated center at 2AM EDT was Location: 14.7°N 78.3°W. The location of the circle below is closer to 14°N 78.25°W Recon is finding the LLC in the circle pointed to below, and this does not appear to be just some old auxiliary swirl.

Edit: The center appears to be making a jump into a new bursting of convection to the northeast of 14N 78.25W, but not under the apparent mid-level circulation. Those two are still separated, but perhaps now merging.



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