Fri Oct 07 2022 02:43 PM
Active Second Half Continues

1:00AM EDT Update 25 October 2022 Update
Today we are watching several low probability areas in the Atlantic, and one "high" probability system, 94L. Invest 94L has been recently and presently affecting Bermuda and its nearby waters as an almost-classifiable depression or very weak storm. Battling modest shear and dry air, it does not have very good odds of getting much stronger.

It is noteworthy that things are percolating this late in the season.

2:00PM EDT Update 24 October 2022 Update
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a formerly non-tropical but well-defined low is increasing, and it appears a tropical storm may be forming with the system, Invest 94L, presently located about 150m east-southeast of Bermuda. Interests in and around Bermuda may want to pay close attention as Watches and Warnings may be issued at any time if current trends continue.

9:00PM CDT Update 11 October 2022 Update
Recon found the disturbance in the southwestern GOM sufficiently organized, and with maximum sustained winds of 40MPH, NHC advisories on Tropical Storm Karl began this afternoon.

9:00AM CDT Update 11 October 2022 Update
It appears that a tropical cyclone is forming in the southwestern GOM with what has now been designated Invest 93L, and we have started a Lounge on this system Karl Forecast Lounge

3:00AM CDT Update 11 October 2022 Update

A trof of low pressure, largely associated with remnants of Hurricane Julia, is presently situated across the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and drapes across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific side.

This elongated area of low pressure is focusing disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Gulf, and development into a Tropical Depression or named storm is possible this week. NHC presently gives this disturbance 40% odds of becoming a TC within the next few days, and recon is tentatively scheduled to investigate it this afternoon.

Original entry
Generally marginally favorable to favorable conditions for development and strengthening remain across sections of the Atlantic basin thus far in October, with two tropical cyclones forming in the past few days. One, now impacting land and threatening to become a hurricane and possibly even go under Rapid Intensirffication, Julia, is likely to remain a threat to Central America, but there is a non-zero chance of it recurving into or redeveloping in the SW Gulf later, and will be watched closely. Otherwise, CONUS stays TC-Free for the foreseeable future.


{{StormLinks|96L|96|16|2022|96|Invest 96L}}



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