cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 29 2023 12:59 PM
Re: Major Update: Idalia & Franklin

Shear over Idalia has continued to come way down over the past 24 hours and is analyzed by the CIMSS Wind Shear Product at just 4 knots.

Favorable to Very Favorable shear is forecast for the next 24 hours.


HURRICANE 10L 12:00UTC 29August2023
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from NHC) :
Latitude : 23:49:44 N
Longitude : 84:57:32 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 983.7 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 890.0 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 93.7 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 2.2 m/s ( 4.2 kts)
Direction : 206.5 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr: F 12hr: VF 18hr: VF 24hr: VF


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