cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Jun 29 2024 12:05 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Beryl Forms Windward Islands Should be on Alert

As of the June 29, 2024 11AM Advisory, the updated NHC intensity forecast explicitly forecasts Rapid Intensification and brings Beryl up to Major (Cat 3+) before it even reaches the Windwards. For the time of year, this is unprecedented.

Just looking at hurricanes passing within 100 miles of Barbados this early in a season, Dr. Philip Klotzbach notes: "Only 2 hurricanes on record (since 1851) have been within 100 miles of Barbados prior to 1 August: Emily (2005) and Elsa (2021)"


Taking a look at the intensities and tracks of our two only analogs for this event:


Above: Elsa (2021) passed through the Windwards as a Cat 1


Above: Emily (2005) passed through the Windwards as a Cat 1


More seasonal 2024 analog tracking can be found here 2024 Forecast and Modeling Updates


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