cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 03 2024 07:16 PM
Re: PTC FOUR

Finally some recon missions that will penetrate are underway and help resolve some of the questions, such as just how well organized Debby is. Based on conventional and microwave satellite, the tropical cyclone truly appears much better organized than just 24 hours ago, and has completed merging both of the previously competing lobes into one rather large TC.

Given the low shear, high SSTs, healthy outflow environment, about the only thing that might obviously now prevent more rapid intensification seems to be Debby's relatively large size, still reminiscent of its parent gyre. Strong H1/2 certainly looks very possible prior to landfall, and potentially even stronger should more substantial slowing or even stalling start to occur before reaching the Florida coast.

Nightmarish flood risk as a large and wet Category Slow, regardless.





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