| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jun 02 2025 01:08 PM |
|
Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Today and 30 Years of this Website
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I reckon Mike meant to say average by recent years' standards. After the beating many have had recently, the new normal almost starts to feel rather typical
NOAA itself officially predicts an above-average season when compared to the long-term
Quote:
NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
NOAA predicts above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season
An overview of other professional agencies and universities as of the last day in May is also pointing to an above-average season, with the following numbers: 16 Storms, 8 Hurricanes and 4 Major Hurricanes. This is slightly above-average when compared to a longer-term (1991–2020 thirty year average) of 14 Names, 7 Hurricanes and 3 Majors, a time frame that also largely captures the "Active Phase" of the theorized Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which is believed to have started in 1995.