The GOES 19 full disk illustrates the current "peak season" lull in the Atlantic basin should continue through Labor Day into the first week (or longer) in September. While I agree that the Atlantic basin (namely western Caribbean and GOMEX) will wake up later in September, I'm 50/50 on whether or not it will 180 and get hyper-active. Still, I believe we may be in for a significant home-grown TC in the GOMEX or east of the Yucatan peninsula in early October given the synoptics- possibly a Wilma-like spin-up.