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Northwestern caribbean, yucatan. Getting to time of year to watch this area for development from waves to troughs. I'm personally expecting the 2nd week of october to start getting extremely active here. It has been eight years since a mature hurricane moved through the area, rina in 2011, only birthed storms since.
So much warm water its spilling out through the bahamas, and fueling the storms in the southwest Atlantic. With the northwest Bahamas, and adjacent area the area to be this year, with persistent upper trough combo over southeast united states, now in neutral phase of pacific oscilation.
Personally expecting a major to lay down in the northwestern caribbean this, fall, if not this fall then next year in a neutral-lanina could be a bad year all around in the gulf of mexico. Expecting october with another round of MJO to deliver a taste, cuba, keys-southflorida,Bahamas.
No need to start a new post regarding the above excerpts from Robert's Sept 19th post. MRF models starting to hit on a strong system ejecting out of the NW Caribbean across western Cuba then S Fla late in the first week in October. Plenty of SST fuel available in this region and the entire GOMEX if early fall atmospheric conditions become favorable.
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Re: Cut off low, gulf mexico, northwest caribbean, the possible future october and beyond..