Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
448 AM EDT Sat May 30 2020

Wednesday-Saturday...There remains significant disparity in the extended range with how the model guidance handles the evolution of the Central American Gyre (CAG) pattern late next week. This in turn impacts the downstream flow pattern across Florida. A piece of vorticity is forecast to eject out of the gyre Wed-Thu, and lift north to NW into the GOMEX. The ECM brings this much closer to FL than either the GFS/CMC, which turn the feature westward. The latter models keep more ridging across FL while the ECM eventually rebuilds the ridge over the state Fri-Sat as a larger portion of the gyre ejects out toward the western GOMEX. The ECM also shows deeper moisture over the area late next week than either GFS/CMC.