Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
428 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY...

An inverted trough is deepening over the coastal waters along the front that is draped across the area. The pressure gradient tightens along the GA waters bringing a surge of northeasterly winds across the waters and along the coast. Showers and storms will be focused along and south of the boundary mainly across NE FL. The moist tropical airmass (PWATs 2+ in) will continue the threat of locally heavy rainfall across coastal NE FL and north-central FL. A Flood Watch continues for the I-95 corridor as potentially 1-3 inches could fall on already saturated soils. Moist onshore flow and lift from the front will continue showers and storms along the frontal boundary as it shifts southeastward into north central FL

After a few days of flopping back and forth with a weak cutoff low, global models have converged on a solution of a positive tilt short wave trough moving slowly east across the GOMEX Thu-Fri night, then sagging E-SE across FL this weekend. Broad surface troughing sharpens a bit Fri morning as a
frontal boundary sags into the northern CWA, then becomes more diffuse again Sat-Sun as the boundary sags across the central peninsula whilst getting bridged by freshening onshore/ENE winds.